北疆寒潮天气分析及预报     

张俊兰  牟欢  谢葭颖 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(5):11-18

利用1998-2014年20场北疆典型寒潮天气过程的高空、地面和数值预报产品资料,对北疆寒潮天气进行了环流分型和区域分型,总结了环流型与冷空气路径、区域类型的对应关系,重点统计了不同季节北疆寒潮爆发前一天内500hPa脊前北风急流、锋区强度、中低空冷空气强度、地面冷高压等特征量的平均值和最大、最小值,并检验欧洲ECMWF数值预报产品在北疆寒潮天气预报中的预报能力,为北疆寒潮精细化预报提供了技术参考。  相似文献   

THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE VERTICAL VELOCITY OMEGA ON THE SCALE OF SYSTEM SENSITIVITY     

曲维政  范婷婷  杜凌 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):66-72

In this study, the relationship between scale and vertical velocity in a low-pressure system is explored using the wave characteristics of atmospheric disturbances and the structural characteristics of low-pressure systems. The ω differential equation, as determined by the transient geopotential height field Φ, is solved to obtain an analytical solution composed only of wavelength, horizontal speed, and atmospheric stability, i.e., the ω diagnostic equation of a low-pressure system. This equation also shows that vertical velocity in the low-pressure system is very sensitive to the horizontal scale, i.e., a smaller horizontal scale means a larger vertical velocity.  相似文献   

2011年江苏南部两场大暴雨对比分析     

王啸华  郑媛媛  徐芬  李杨  侯俊 《气象科学》2015,35(4):497-505

利用高分辨率的加密气象自动站资料、FY2D卫星资料、多普勒雷达资料、常规观测资料以及6 h 1次的NCEP再分析资料等,对2011年6月18日和2011年7月18日江苏地区分别发生在梅雨期开始阶段和结束阶段的两场暴雨进行中尺度天气系统演变和雷达回波参数等特征的对比分析。结果表明:(1)6月18日的天气形势是典型的梅雨期降水形势,在梅雨锋附近产生了区域性暴雨。水汽输送主要是对流层中低层的西南暖湿气流。7月18日的局地暴雨则是出现在低压倒槽顶端右侧的偏东气流中。(2)两次暴雨过程强降水发生前都存在对流层低层辐合快速增强的过程。7月18日暴雨强降水发生前散度值下降则更为迅速。(3)两次暴雨过程中强降水区都出现在地面辐合系统附近的东北气流中,且随着地面辐合系统移动。(4)两次暴雨过程都出现了T_BB低于-62℃的强对流云团。(5)6月18日,与多个线性排列的"逆风区"对应的强回波中心形成了"列车效应";7月18日,对流回波带上单体不断流入,在低空急流左前端合并成团状强对流区,分别是形成两次暴雨的重要原因。  相似文献   

地球-电离层空腔舒曼共振日变化特征分析     

银峰  张其林  纪彤彤  姜苏 《气象科学》2015,35(4):480-487

全球雷电活动在地球-电离层空腔中产生的极低频(ELF)信号干涉叠加,在一系列固定频率上产生舒曼共振(SR)。利用2012年5月以色列Mitzpe-Roman(MR)站ELF水平磁场资料,采用频谱变换、时间平均、分析了实测SR日变化信号的时域和频域特征。同时基于全球ELF传播模式,利用OTD/LIS雷电卫星资料模拟了5~30 Hz磁场功率谱日变化情况。结果表明:时域背景信号幅值的均值和偏差满足正态分布的期望和标准差;水平磁场前三阶SR谐振频率非常稳定,月平均下的谐振频率日变化相对8、14、20 Hz理论值的偏移量分别不超过0.3 Hz、0.55 Hz和0.6 Hz。东南亚和美洲地区雷电活动主要响应于南北磁场分量第一阶SR的07—09时和19—22时时段内。而东西磁场分量前三阶SR在12—15时时段内都对非洲地区雷电活动有指示作用。磁场功率谱日变化模拟结果与实测基本一致,表明利用单站正交磁天线的不同阶SR信号能够指示全球不同"热斑"区域的雷电活动。  相似文献   

2007/2008和2008/2009冬季平流层强、弱极涡事件对应的行星波活动的对比分析     

邓淑梅  陈月娟  易明建 《大气科学》2015,39(2):433-444

在对逐日气象资料进行纬向谐波分析的基础上, 对比和讨论了2007/2008年冬季强极涡期间和2008/2009冬季弱极涡期间平流层和对流层不同波数的行星波的变化特征, 特别关注强极涡或弱极涡发生之后, 500 hPa 沿60°N和30°N行星波1波和2波振幅和位相的差异, 以及相应的500 hPa位势场的差异, 进而讨论为什么不同的平流层极涡异常会对东亚有不同的影响, 特别讨论为什么同一种极涡异常, 对我国南北方近地面气温的影响会不同。结果表明:平流层极涡发生异常时, 平流层行星波活动有明显的异常。随着极涡异常的下传, 对流层行星波的振幅和位相也有明显的变化, 而且, 对于不同的纬度带, 其变化又有不同, 表现为:2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 500 hPa行星波1波和2波的扰动都向南伸, 而2009年1月的弱极涡(SSW)期间和之后, 1波和2波的扰动都偏北; 在对流层, 强极涡和弱极涡发生之后不但行星波1波和2波的振幅有所差异, 其位相也有明显的不同。特别是, 其位相的差异还随纬度而变化。就同一年(或者说对于同是强极涡或者同是弱极涡)而言, 无论是1波还是2波, 在60°N和30°N附近的扰动相比, 几乎反位相。这样就使得它们的500 hPa 位势场也有明显不同:在东半球, 主要表现为乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽的强度和位置不同。2008年1月强极涡发生之后, 乌拉尔高压和东亚大槽东移, 不利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部(包括我国北方)的输送, 使这些地区的温度偏高;而2009年1月弱极涡之后, 东亚大槽西退, 利于冷空气向欧亚大陆北部输送, 导致这些地区较冷。对于同一种极涡异常(如2008强极涡或者2009弱极涡)由于南方和北方行星波扰动的位相不同, 对南方和北方冷暖空气的输送也就不一样。所以同一种极涡异常对(我国)南北地区的温度影响是不同的。  相似文献   

大连“11．28”翻船事故风浪分析     

李燕  黄振  刘晓初  赵繁盛  刘大刚 《气象与环境学报》2015,(3)

利用自动气象站资料、常规气象观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料及WAVEWATCH III模式预报资等料对2012年11月28日大连翻船事故的大风大浪实况、事故成因及演变情况进行分析。结果表明：大连此次翻船事故高空的强冷空气促使冷涡加强,西部大陆高压和蒙古气旋不断加强东移,东南部海上高压稳定少动,蒙古气旋底前部与海上高压顶后部梯度加大,梯度密集区正好位于渤海海峡,造成黄海和渤海偏西大风;低层辐散和中层辐合的垂直结构加强了低层以下的上下扰动,构成南北垂直环流,中层以下动力强迫下沉气流将北侧中层的动量下传至辽东半岛南部地面及黄海、渤海海面,使其不断获得动能,有利于偏西大风的加强;西南向岸大风有利于浪高增长,偏西大风及与其同时增长的大浪是大连地区此次翻船事故的主要原因。  相似文献   

Mesoscale dynamics and its application in torrential rainfall systems in China     

Shouting Gao  Zhemin Tan  Sixiong Zhao  Zhexian Luo  Hancheng Lu  Donghai Wang  Chunguang Cui  Xiaopeng Cui  Jianhua Sun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(2):192-205

Progress over the past decade in understanding moisture-driven dynamics and torrential rain storms in China is reviewed in this paper. First, advances in incorporating moisture effects more realistically into theory are described, including the development of a new parameter, generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) and an improved moist ageostrophic Q vector(Qum). Advances in vorticity dynamics are also described, including the adoption of a "parcel dynamic" approach to investigate the development of the vertical vorticity of an air parcel; a novel theory of slantwise vorticity development, proposed because vorticity develops easily near steep isentropic surfaces; and the development of the convective vorticity vector(CVV)as an effective new tool. The significant progress in both frontal dynamics and wave dynamics is also summarized, including the geostrophic adjustment of initial unbalanced flow and the dual role of boundary layer friction in frontogenesis, as well as the interaction between topography and fronts, which indicate that topographic perturbations alter both frontogenesis and frontal structure. For atmospheric vortices, mixed wave/vortex dynamics has been extended to explain the propagation of spiral rainbands and the development of dynamical instability in tropical cyclones. Finally, we review wave and basic flow interaction in torrential rainfall, for which it was necessary to extend existing theory from large-scale flows to mesoscale fields, enriching our knowledge of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics.  相似文献   

Estimation of turbulent sensible heat and momentum fluxes over a heterogeneous urban area using a large aperture scintillometer     

Sang-Hyun Lee  Jun-Ho Lee  Bo-Young Kim 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1092-1105

The accurate determination of surface-layer turbulent fluxes over urban areas is critical to understanding urban boundary layer (UBL) evolution. In this study, a remote-sensing technique using a large aperture scintillometer (LAS) was investigated to estimate surface-layer turbulent fluxes over a highly heterogeneous urban area. The LAS system, with an optical path length of 2.1 km, was deployed in an urban area characterized by a complicated land-use mix (residential houses, water body, bare ground, etc.). The turbulent sensible heat (Q H) and momentum fluxes (τ) were estimated from the scintillation measurements obtained from the LAS system during the cold season. Three-dimensional LAS footprint modeling was introduced to identify the source areas ("footprint") of the estimated turbulent fluxes. The analysis results showed that the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes for the highly heterogeneous urban area revealed reasonable temporal variation during daytime on clear days, in comparison to the land-surface process-resolving numerical modeling. A series of sensitivity tests indicated that the overall uncertainty in the LAS-derived daytime Q H was within 20%-30% in terms of the influence of input parameters and the non-dimensional similarity function for the temperature structure function parameter, while the estimation errors in τ were less sensitive to the factors of influence, except aerodynamic roughness length. The 3D LAS footprint modeling characterized the source areas of the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes in the heterogeneous urban area, revealing that the representative spatial scales of the LAS system deployed with the 2.1 km optical path distance ranged from 0.2 to 2 km2 (a "micro-α scale"), depending on local meteorological conditions.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly     

Dieter H. W. Peters  Andrea Schneidereit  Marianne Bügelmayer  Christoph Zülicke  Ingo Kirchner 《大气与海洋》2015,53(1):74-88

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.  相似文献   

SRES A2 情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杨红龙  潘婕  张镭 《气象与环境学报》2015,31(1):51-59

随全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式-HadAM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明：全球PRECIS对基准时段（1961-1990年）的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段,未来情景下未来时段（2071-2100年）中国各地区的高温热浪的强度增加,发生频率增幅超过了100 %,且持续时间增加30 %以上。此外,观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 hPa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下,武汉和哈尔滨地区500 hPa高度场的正距平呈增加趋势,表明这些地区未来可能面临危害更严重的高温热浪事件。  相似文献